254. China would emerge victorious  

With negotiations between the US and Iran ongoing in Islamabad, the world is anxiously awaiting their result.

The main US delegation is led by Vice President JD Vance, along with special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, supported by senior advisors like Dr. Andrew Baker and Michael Vance. Iran's representatives are Mohammad Ghalibaf and Abbas Araghchi.

Who will ultimately emerge victorious in the Iran-US-Israel conflict? Clearly, none of the three will truly come out on top.

Then would it be Russia, China, or both?

Thomas Ricks, a senior Pentagon reporter for the Washington Post, described the Iraq invasion in his 2006 book Fiasco as 'perhaps the worst war plan in American history,' noting that it was designed for a few battles rather than for victory.

The present invasion continues the narrative of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. The US aimed to topple Saddam Hussein and occupy a key Arab nation, expecting that this would permanently shift regional power in the US's favor. However, that outcome did not materialize. 

This war is significantly worse than the Iraq war plan because the US had no necessity to involve itself. It was driven by Israel.

In contrast, Iran, a long-standing rival of Iraq, increased its influence considerably following the American invasion of Baghdad. If current policies imply that Iran should be dismantled in the same way as Iraq, it raises the question of who could become the next dominant power, considering the narrow focus of US policymakers. 

I have read the book, and my view is that China will emerge as the real winner if we apply Ricks’ logic. But first, let us wait for another day. Tomorrow would be a big day to analyze in detail.