236. “If not at the table, we’re on the menu.” 

Few paid attention when, earlier this year in Davos, the Canadian prime minister urged middle powers to form alliances capable of cooperating in a world with increasing U.S.-China competition, warning: “If we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”

This is relevant not only for Europe and other regions but also for the GCC countries. Since its founding in 1981, the Gulf Cooperation Council—a regional intergovernmental organization including Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—has heavily depended on the USA for its security. It exists mainly in name as a political, economic, and military alliance.

Now, a recent YouGov poll found that half of Britons believe World War III is likely to occur within the next five to ten years, as the rules-based international order has collapsed and the institutions established after World War II have become irrelevant. 

At present, the world continues to face conflict, from Ukraine's trenches to Gulf skies filled with missiles and drones. Hundreds of thousands of people are suffering through the horrors of war. As it stands, things could get even worse. The reason – the world is in a multi-layered war scenario.

When Donald Trump withdrew his threat, saying he would postpone military strikes on Iranian power plants for five days after productive talks to resolve the conflict, Iran immediately rejected this version of events. So, there is little sign that the fighting is close to ending.

No doubt, Trump had been scared off by their threats of attacking water infrastructure in the Gulf, but his partner in crime, Israel, is relentlessly bombing Tehran.  

The Israeli military announced it had initiated a new series of strikes on Tehran, following Donald Trump's indication of a pause in US attacks on energy infrastructure after what he called productive talks with Iran.

The world faces conflict across regions such as the Middle East, Europe, and China. This involvement varies and isn’t always military—sometimes it’s diplomatic, shadow wars, or cyber warfare. 

Trump has introduced a new word – 'Deal.' This word has shifted the decades-old conservative practice of making commitments and ensuring they are honored with a sense of morality. 

Since conflicts are now interconnected, the old approach is outdated. It's a game of give some and take some without shame, as seen when reportedly Russians proposed stopping intelligence and military support to Iran if the Americans pressured Ukraine into land concessions. 

The biggest loser in this war is the USA. Under Trump, the US has lost its commanding position because it has failed to follow a rules-based international order, ignoring its allies and institutions like the UN. This has led to a new world order. The world is realigning, leaving America alone.

Now, America also acts alone, as no country has responded to Trump's request for help in the Iran war. The US will have trouble accepting this change, since it used to expect Europe to step in when called upon. But now, they are not.

Also, there are no moral standards for conflicts. Europe showed unwavering support for Ukraine against Russia; however, it remained silent about what Israel is doing in Palestine.

Amid all this, China could see a chance to retake Taiwan. This might be a good moment to act, since America is heavily overstretched.

Now, all the European countries that had been spending more on welfare and neglecting their defense budgets will have to reconsider.

That will take away the charm of European cities. But there is no way out. NATO is also much abused in this war. NATO, which was the main issue in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, has lost its glory. It is no shield, it used to be.

The dynamics of the world will undoubtedly shift as every country will need to focus on its own interests and security. To repeat the Canadian Prime Minister’s warning, if they fail to have their own army and a robust defence system, they will be on the menu.

However, Donald Trump is damaging not only the global community but also his own country. As a businessman, Trump takes every chance to make easy money. Recently, it was reported that Kalshi and Polymarket, the two largest prediction market platforms, are involved in a prediction game meant to be a state secret.

Polymarket received intense criticism after some users placed substantial bets prior to the US-Israel conflict in Iran and the US military intervention in Venezuela earlier this year. These users seemingly profited from prior knowledge that Donald Trump would take military action in those areas. This suggests that state secrets are not secure in the USA.

Kalshi and Polymarket have found backing from the Trump-controlled Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the federal regulator of derivatives and other prediction market activities.