274. OPEC gets a jolt from the UAE 

On April 28, 2026, the UAE announced it would exit OPEC and OPEC+, the expanded group that includes Russia, on May 1. 

While members like Qatar in 2019 and Angola in 2024 have departed from OPEC, the UAE’s exit has a significantly greater impact, accounting for approximately 12 per cent of total oil production. 

OPEC was established in 1960 to enable major oil producers to set production quotas and regulate global crude prices.

Since the seven-emirate federation was established in 1971, the UAE has been a member of OPEC, although Abu Dhabi, which holds 95 per cent of Emirati oil reserves, joined in 1967.

OPEC played a major role in changing the balance of power between oil producers and consumers, fundamentally challenging Western dominance.

The United Arab Emirates’s move to exit OPEC will diminish the oil cartel’s influence. Additionally, it highlights ongoing tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer and de facto leader.

Although the move may appear sudden, intra-Gulf politics suggest Abu Dhabi’s choice to exit OPEC independently was likely planned for some time. This decision aligns with longstanding grievances Abu Dhabi has expressed about the cartel.

This division between the two leading Gulf states became clear in December 2025, as their conflicting security strategies for Yemen threatened to reignite civil conflict in the war-torn country.

The UAE has indicated it might stay independent for at least five years, with disagreements over oil policy with Saudi Arabia becoming evident during a July 2021 OPEC+ meeting. 

In both situations, the UAE sought to boost oil production, which had been sharply reduced by OPEC members during the COVID-19 pandemic, while the Saudis sought to keep prices high by limiting their output. 

Saudi Arabia depends on higher oil prices to fund its extensive budget and large infrastructure initiatives, but the Emirati economy is more diversified and less reliant on oil income.

Abu Dhabi has recently made significant investments to boost capacity, targeting an increase in oil production from 3.4 million barrels per day before the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran to 5 million barrels per day by 2027, with the possibility of even higher levels later. 

While the war in Iran may have temporarily overshadowed the eruption of Saudi-Emirati tensions over Yemen and visions for the region, the rift had not been resolved prior to the U.S. and Israeli launch of military operations.