223. When will Iranian democracy finally flourish?

US President Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end soon because there was practically nothing left to target in Iran. “Little this and that... Any time I want it to end, it will end... The war is going great,” Trump said.

But his desperate effort to move past the war is clear - he has fluctuated between demanding Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and suggesting that the conflict could end quickly.

And his war secretary Pete Hegseth agrees, saying, “it was ultimately up to Trump to decide whether it’s the beginning, the middle or the end of the war.”

But Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz said: “The war would continue without any time limit, for as long as necessary, until we achieve all the objectives and decisively win the campaign.”

The three statements above are meaningless because the facts tell a different story. The situation is dire, and the ball is essentially in Iran’s court.

Roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, and its impact is visible all over. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has declared that Tehran will prevent “a single liter of oil” from passing through the strait until the United States ceases its bombing campaign.

The fact is that it seems Iranian public opinion has shifted from viewing the US-Israel strike as an attack on the regime to seeing it as an assault on Iran itself. The Iranian government has successfully persuaded people that the conflict will only end when Trump recognizes that the economic, political, and military consequences are so severe they outweigh any potential gains. 

This is what I guessed as I observed the iconic Enghelab Square, where people were waving Iran's national flags and holding pictures of the new leader and the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The participants pledged they would never surrender to the enemy and emphasized that they had made miscalculations and would be defeated.

Many Iranians are taking part in nationwide rallies to express their support for the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, following the Assembly of Experts' announcement of his appointment. To my knowledge, so far, only Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a congratulatory message to Mojtaba Khamenei, stating that Russia has been and will continue to be a dependable partner of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

As the conflict enters its 12th day, Iran seeks more than mere survival, initiating multiple waves of missile and drone strikes targeting Israeli and US positions throughout the Middle East.

The defiance is clear. 

President Masoud Pezeshkian expressed a resilient stance, stating, “The destroyers have come and gone. Iran remains.”

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that a unilateral declaration of victory by Trump would not resolve the conflict. 

This indicates that even if the US announced an end to hostilities, Iran might still choose to continue the conflict.

Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister, stated that for a ceasefire or the war's end to be credible, guarantees are needed to prevent aggressive actions against Iran from recurring. Without such assurances, another attack within a few months would render the ceasefire insignificant.

Mohammed Ghalibaf, the speaker of parliament, declared, “We are not pursuing a ceasefire at all. Let the enemy know that any actions they take will be met with a swift, proportional response. Our stance is eye for eye, tooth for tooth, with no compromises or exceptions.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has emphasized that no vessel linked to aggressors against Iran is permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. 

So, it's really an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth, with no compromises.

The new Iranian regime believes it can stay involved in this war, which could actually legitimize its position. Some of Israel’s attacks, like on the girls' school and energy infrastructure, have also turned public opinion in Iran against it.

And this feeling continues to grow.

Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, a former political prisoner in Iran, along with over 100 other Iranians living in the UK, has signed a letter to the British prime minister urging him to refrain from increasing involvement in the Iran conflict, arguing that the way the war is being fought is strengthening the regime in Tehran.

Among the signatories is Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who was detained in a Tehran jail on espionage charges for six years, starting in 2016. Other notable names include Aras Amiri, who served three years in Evin prison in Tehran, and Nasrin Parvaz, who has been imprisoned in Iran for eight years since 1982. The list also features prominent artists from the Iranian community, as well as scholars and writers.

In their letter, they say: “Nobody can claim to want the end of the Islamic Republic more than we do. But attacking the country in this way will have the opposite effect. It will entrench the authoritarians and give life to the fiction that has sustained them internally for decades: that they are fighting Western imperialism…..When Netanyahu – a man charged with international war crimes after killing countless civilians in Gaza – assassinates Iran’s dictator, that kills the man but immortalises the myth. Iranians wanted him tried and punished for his crimes, not given the martyr-ending he craved. There is so much that can be done in solidarity with Iranians. But joining in with Netanyahu’s forever wars is not it.”

Before concluding, let us read US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s almost funny remark: “We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces, and we knew that if we didn’t preemptively go after them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher casualties. So, the US followed Netanyahu into this war.”

And why leave the joker of the pack, Reza Pahlavi? 

Read his latest call: “Dear fellow compatriots, we are now in a very sensitive stage of our final struggle. I ask you to prepare your essential needs as soon as possible, and for the sake of your own security, leave the streets and stay in your homes. Continue the strike and do not show up for work. To demonstrate your unity, keep up the nighttime chants with full force.

To the military and security forces: This is the last chance to separate yourselves from the repressive forces and join the people. Await my final call.”

See his confidence – “Await my final call.”

I hate these jokers, and merely mentioning them makes my blood boil. India also has many such creatures. Each family-run political party has one such person. For those who couldn’t understand, I must clarify: Don’t you know that a child born into the Nehru-Gandhi family considers it his birthright to be the country’s prime minister?

So, these are the latest updates. The world has seemingly forgotten Ukraine and Gaza. 

And the dream of every peace-loving person on this earth remains the same: When will Iranian democracy finally flourish?